The advanced analytics on UConn men's hockey

All the underlying numbers say the Huskies should have more wins (and goals).

Author

Daniel Connolly
November 30, 2023

Photo: Ian Bethune

Welcome to the UConn Hockey Hub newsletter, which catches you up on all the stories, trends, and anything else you might have missed, along with some quick takes and leftover notes from the weekend.

What the analytics say about UConn men’s hockey

UConn men’s hockey has two games left in a first half of the season, one that’s seen more disappointments than triumphs. The Huskies are just 6-8-1, have been shut out three times (all at home), and have yet to win back-to-back games. They currently sit tied for seventh in the Hockey East standings with nine points and are ranked 35th in Pairwise.

But some data suggests UConn is better than its record, as Mike McMahon of College Hockey Insider recently wrote.

“Every metric says that UConn should be much better than a six-win record,” he said.

The biggest discrepancy — which shouldn’t surprise anyone who’s watched a game this season — is around expected goals. UConn is scoring about 1.5 fewer goals per game than it should, which has resulted in substantial underperformance.

From McMahon’s story:

“Based on xG, the Huskies have underperformed by about 33 percent. UConn should have roughly nine wins at this point, not six… The Huskies have a goal differential of 2.7-2.6, but their expected goal differential is 4.2-2.8. They have a 58% Corsi, and have generated more scoring chances per game (20-16) than their opponents.”

McMahon also mentions that UConn will finish the season with 12 of 19 games at home, including eight of its next 11 beginning on Friday against UMass Lowell.

While the Huskies have been far from world-beaters on home ice, with just a 1-4-0 record, cutting back on travel could help. Throughout the first nine weekends of the first half, four have involved an overnight trip — Colgate, Union, Vermont, and Maine.

In the second half, UConn should be at home (or at least Hartford) every single night. The farthest road trip is to UNH, and even that won’t be bad since the game is on a Sunday following a day off on Saturday.

Regardless, the Huskies have a lot of ground to make up once they return to action after Christmas. If they’ve underperformed by 33 percent to this point then, in theory, they’ll have to outplay expectations by the same margin to make up for it the rest of the way.

UConn could jump-start that run this weekend with a grudge match against UMass Lowell on Friday followed by its last long road trip, up to Maine on Sunday. If the Huskies can come away with two wins, they’ll go into the winter break at .500 on a three-game winning streak. That could help change the mood surrounding the team after an underwhelming campaign so far.

More numbers

A few other advanced stats from McMahon:

  • Chase Bradley leads the nation in hits per 20:00 minutes of time on ice with 5.45. Oliver Flynn is fifth at 4.28 and Nick Capone is eighth at 3.92.

  • Matthew Wood is ninth in scoring chances per 20 minutes of time on ice with 4.37, but he’s not even the top UConn player. That belongs to Jake Black in sixth at 4.62.

  • Speaking of Black, he’s third in the country in net team expected goal differential — essentially a team’s expected goal differential when a player in on the ice — at .98. Jake Richard is tied for the lead at .99 with Quinnipiac’s Mason Marcellus, while Owen Simpson is the top defenseman at 0.75. Andrew Lucas is fourth among blue liners at 0.64.

Week in review

Last week’s Forecheck:

Three stars

First star: Jada Habisch

Habisch hit the 10-goal mark on the season with a two-score night against Sacred Heart on Saturday and had a three-point weekend overall. She’s found the back of the net in eight of UConn’s 15 games so far this season and is the Hockey East Player of the Month for November.

Second star: Chase Bradley

For the second straight weekend, Bradley had a two-goal game. He lit the lamp twice against Dartmouth and now has six goals on the season — one behind Matthew Wood for the team lead.

Third star: Hudson Schandor

Schandor quietly had a hat-trick of assists against Dartmouth, setting up goals for Bradley, Jake Black, and Wood. He has 10 assists on the year and hit the double-digit mark in points with 11.

Play of the Week

Ice-cold capture

Photo: Ian Bethune

Photo: Ian Bethune

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The week ahead

UConn’s teams will both close out the first half this weekend.

On Friday, there’s a double-header at Toscano Family Ice Forum. First up is UConn women’s hockey at 2 p.m. ET against Merrimack followed by the men’s side at 7 p.m. ET against UMass Lowell.

The next day, Chris MacKenzie’s squad will have the rink to themselves for a battle with Boston College at 3 p.m. ET. On Sunday, the Ice Bus will head into the holiday break after making the long trip up to Orono to take on Maine at 5 p.m. ET.