Bracketology: Welcome to Fabulous Manchvegas

On March 28, the NCAA Tournament will kick off with Regionals in Allentown, Pennsylvania; Fargo, North Dakota; Manchester, New Hampshire; and Toledo, Ohio. Two brackets will begin March 28, while the remaining pair start the following day. Two weeks from then, St. Louis will host the Frozen Four on April 10 and 12.

UConn split with the Commonwealth of Massachusetts’ state schools, giving up a two-goal lead in the third period to UMass before a last-minute overtime tally delivered the Huskies to victory over UMass Lowell. The Huskies are 15-10-3 and have at least seven games left between the regular season and Hockey East Tournament. One more win will secure at least a .500 record and eligibility for at-large consideration.

Mike Cavanuagh’s team is all but assured of such a bid if it doesn’t secure Hockey East’s automatic entrance into the field. Alaska- Anchorage, ranked No. 57 of 64 teams in PairWise, comes to Toscano Family Ice Forum on Wednesday and even if UConn loses out otherwise, would be No. 13 in PairWise as long as it beats the Seawolves, without accounting for other results, which would be the last team in in the current field. College Hockey News’ PairWise Probability Matrix puts UConn at a 98 percent chance to make the field of 16. Most likely, the Huskies will be a 2-seed (44 percent) or a 3-seed (48 percent), but has an outside chance at landing on the top line (2.3 percent) or finishing outside the top 12 (5.7 percent), putting them either as a 4-seed or out of the field.

Bracketology

Unlike most NCAA Tournaments, the hockey committees merely seed the teams and fill the regionals without actually selecting the field, which is done by the PairWise rankings. The six conference champions are paired with the top 10 teams in the rankings that have not already qualified to fill out the field. This objective measure gives teams a sense of what they need to do at all times while also giving fans a sneak peek at what may be coming down the road.

The top four teams in the 16-team field earn a seed and are placed in one of four regions, which are filled out according to straight bracket integrity, though the committee does adjust first-round matchups within an individual seeding band to reduce travel while also avoiding intra-conference games. Additionally, teams hosting a regional must play within that regional. This year, Penn State is hosting in Allentown, North Dakota is hosting in Fargo, New Hampshire is hosting in Manchester and Bowling Green is hosting in Toledo.

The first six teams in the field are the conference leaders, which are listed below.

Atlantic Hockey has changed hands heading into its penultimate weekend, as Holy Cross is tied with Sacred Heart in points, but has two games in hand. Bentley, which like the Crusaders is at 22 games, looms one point back. Holy Cross hosts the Falcons on Feb. 20.

Minnesota State is back up front in CCHA after Augustana got swept by the Mavericks last weekend and surrendered the top spot.

The other four conference have remained the same, each of which have three weekends to go. Western Michigan is the closest to clinching, up three points with two games in hand, but there’s a possibility all six conference title races go to the final weekend.