Bracketology: UConn men's hockey is firmly on the bubble

On March 28, the NCAA Tournament will kick off with Regionals in Allentown, Pennsylvania; Fargo, North Dakota; Manchester, New Hampshire; and Toldeo, Ohio. Two brackets will begin March 28, while the remaining pair start the following day. Two weeks from then, St. Louis will host the Frozen Four on April 10 and 12.

The first half of the season is over and UConn sits with a chance to get into the field with a solid second half, which starts December 28 in the Kwik Trip Holiday Face Off in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The team opens up with Alaska Fairbanks and will play whichever matches its result between Ferris State and Wisconsin. The Huskies are 7-7-1 overall with a 4-6-1 Hockey East record. That’s good for sixth in the league, though eight of the other 10 teams have played nine games and UConn’s 11 is the highest total to this point.

UConn is at No. 15 in the PairWise at the midway point, which means it’s the first team out of the field since there are two conference leaders outside the top 16.

Bracketology

Unlike most NCAA Tournaments, the hockey committees merely seed the teams and fill the regionals without actually selecting the field, which is done by the PairWise rankings. The six conference champions are paired with the top 10 teams in the rankings that have not already qualified to fill out the field. This objective measure gives teams a sense of what they need to do at all times while also giving fans a sneak peek at what may be coming down the road.

The top four teams in the 16-team field earn a seed and are placed in one of four regions, which are filled out according to straight bracket integrity, though the committee does adjust first-round matchups within an individual seeding band to reduce travel while also avoiding intra-conference games. Additionally, teams hosting a regional must play within that regional. This year, Penn State is hosting in Allentown, North Dakota is hosting in Fargo, New Hampshire is hosting in Manchester and Bowling Green is hosting in Toledo.

The first six teams in the field are the conference leaders, which are listed below.

Bentley is tied in points with Sacred Heart but has three games in hand on the Pioneers to lead Atlantic Hockey. In the Big Ten, Minnesota is up five points but Michigan State has two games in hand. Minnesota State is also five points clear in the CCHA, while Clarkson has two games in hand on Colgate but is just two points back, giving the Golden Knights the lead on points percentage. There’s a pile-up at the top of Hockey East with Maine up one on Boston College, Boston University, Providence and UMass Lowell through nine games. Western Michigan is up two points on North Dakota in NCHC.

The following 10 schools will fill out the bracket.

There are six bids for Hockey East, four for the Big Ten and three for NCHC. The remaining three leagues have one each. Boston College is its own tier at the top, with a significant lead in RPI. Adjusted RPI is one of the three criteria for comparisons, along with head-to-head record and record vs. common opponents. This will make it difficult to unseat the Eagles as the No. 1 overall seed, though a losing streak could knock them from their perch.

The unadjusted bracket is below.

This is very close to being a perfect bracket. There are three New England teams in the lone regional in the area, with three more in the next-closest location and two Minnesota squads in Fargo.

However, New Hampshire has two issues. It needs to be in Manchester since it’s a host, while a tantalizing Border War matchup between Maine and the Wildcats wouldn’t be permitted in the first round as an intra-conference game. The same would occur with Boston College, which pushes the top seed out of its local regional and forces a shuffle at the top. Minnesota is staying in Fargo but the other three top seeds will rotate around and Bentley will follow the Eagles, since New Hampshire needs its spot in Manchester.

The bubble

UConn (7-7-1, 4-6-1 Hockey East) is the first team out of the field. The Huskies finished the first half with an overtime loss at Boston College and have more than three weeks off before the Kwik Trip Holiday Face Off. UConn will go nearly two months (November 15-January 11) between home games.

Dartmouth (6-3-2, 4-2-1 ECAC) was a 1-seed just two weeks ago but since Ivy League teams don’t start until November, the Big Green are still more volatile. They have just one win since November 15 during a 1-3-2 skid that pushed them down the PairWise rankings. Dartmouth hosts the Ledyard Classic December 28-29 with a game against Alaska Anchorage and then either Northeastern or Providence.

Quinnipiac (8-6-1, 5-3-0 ECAC) started cold with a 3-6-0 record to open the year but the Bobcats are 5-1-1 since November 15. They open the second half with single games against AIC (December 29) and a New Year’s Day battle against Harvard.

Arizona State (8-7-1, 5-3-0 NCHC) is in its first year in a conference, playing in the NCHC. The Sun Devils are winners of five straight, including a road sweep at Denver, to help balance out a five-game winless streak in October that included a sweep at the hands of Providence. After two games against the US under-18 squad, Arizona State hosts the Desert Hockey Classic, which features Cornell, Robert Morris and UMass.

Colorado College, UMass, LIU and North Dakota are the next four out.