Bracketology: Midseason check-in

On March 28, the NCAA Tournament will kick off with Regionals in Maryland Heights, Missouri; Providence, Rhode Island; Sioux Falls, South Dakota; and Springfield, Massachusetts. Two brackets will begin March 28, while the remaining pair start the following day. Two weeks from then, St. Paul, Minnesota will host the Frozen Four on April 11 and 13.

UConn is on the outside looking into this field. The Huskies sit at No. 34 in the PairWise, which puts them well out of reach of an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament.

UConn is 7-9-1 at the halfway mark after a win over UMass Lowell and a loss to Maine to close out the final weekend. This includes a 4-6-0 record in Hockey East play that’s tied for sixth in the league standings with 12 points. Boston University leads the conference at 23 points with a game in hand on the Huskies.

Bracketology

Note: All PairWise rankings via College Hockey News

Unlike most NCAA Tournaments, the hockey committees merely seed the teams and fill the regionals without actually selecting the field, which is done by the PairWise rankings. The six conference champions are paired with the top 10 teams in the rankings that have not already qualified to fill out the field. This objective measure gives teams a sense of what they need to do at all times while also giving fans a sneak peek at what may be coming down the road.

The top four teams in the 16-team field earn a seed and are placed in one of four regions, which are filled out according to straight bracket integrity, though the committee does adjust first-round matchups within an individual seeding band to reduce travel while also avoiding intra-conference games. Additionally, teams hosting a regional must play within that regional. This year, Brown is hosting in Providence, Lindenwood is hosting in Maryland Heights, Nebraska- Omaha is hosting in Sioux Falls, and both AIC and UMass are hosting in Springfield.

The first six teams in the field are the conference leaders, which are listed below.

St. Thomas leads CCHA, but in its third year of competition, it won’t be eligible for the NCAA Tournament.

The following 10 schools will fill out the bracket.

The cut line is functionally 13, as Atlantic Hockey is typically not a player for at-large bids and CCHA is having a down year as a whole. Hockey East will have three of the four top seeds with Quinnipiac at No. 2. With two Regionals outside of the Northeast, this will create an interesting dilemma for the committee if they continue to dominate the top line, though the next four teams in the Pairwise are outside ECAC and Hockey East. Hockey East would have six bids, followed by four for NCHC and three for the Big Ten.

This bracket doesn’t require any moves. There are no intraconference matchups despite 13 bids concentrated across three leagues, and North Dakota is in Sioux Falls, which is a big attendance draw there, while each of the two New England brackets have at least two local teams. By serendipity, Providence is at its hometown regional, despite Brown assuming hosting duties, while UMass is at its host site by bracket integrity. Suburban St. Louis is going to be a difficult site with few schools nearby, but three of the squads are from the midwestern part of the country.

Nothing needs to be changed for either of the two criteria for the committee, so the initial bracket will stand. They’ll surely be hoping that the hardest decision they’ll need to make is whether to send Maine or Boston College to Maryland Heights.

The bubble

The Big Ten is lying in wait for teams to slip up, as three of the first five out are from the conference in No. 15 Michigan, No. 19 Penn State and No. 20 Notre Dame. None of the next eight teams in line are from Hockey East, but at No. 37, UMass Lowell is the conference’s worst program in the metric.

Independent programs Arizona State and Alaska- Fairbanks are among the first four out, as well. The Sun Devils and Nanooks would need to earn an at-large bid, with no conference affiliation.