Bracketology: Another brutal weekend

On March 28, the NCAA Tournament will kick off with Regionals in Maryland Heights, Missouri; Providence, Rhode Island; Sioux Falls, South Dakota; and Springfield, Massachusetts. Two brackets will begin March 28, while the remaining pair start the following day. Two weeks from then, St. Paul, Minnesota will host the Frozen Four on April 11 and 13.

UConn had a terrible weekend against Boston University, getting outscored 12-1. The Huskies, at 12-17-2, would need to win out except for the Hockey East Tournament championship to even be eligible for an at-large bid. Mike Cavanaugh’s team has now lost four straight — scoring just two goals in the process — and six of seven. UConn can no longer secure an opening round bye in the Hockey East Tournament and is tied for eighth in the standings with Vermont, though the Catamounts have a game in hand.

Conference Races

Conference tournaments are rapidly beginning, as Atlantic Hockey has concluded the regular season, while the Big Ten, CCHA and ECAC have the final weekend of the regular season this weekend. Hockey East and NCHC each have two weekends remaining.

The first round in Atlantic Hockey, which features the bottom six teams, as well as the final, are single games. The quarterfinal and semifinal are each best-of-three and all games will take place on home ice for the higher seed. RIT won the regular season title.

The top seed gets a bye in the Big Ten Tournament, which features all seven teams. Michigan State is up two points on Wisconsin for this distinction, but the two play a pair in Madison this weekend.

Eight teams get in the CCHA Tournament with a best-of-three quarterfinal followed by single-game semifinals and final. All games are played at the higher seed. Bemidji State is up four points on Minnesota State, with Beavers vs. Mavericks on tap this weekend.

Quinnipiac has clinched the regular season ECAC championship and one of four byes to the quarterfinals. The first round and quarterfinals are best-of-three, then the final four meet in Lake Placid for single-game semifinals and final on consecutive days.

It’s Boston College and Boston University duking it out for the Hockey East regular season title with not much else decided behind them. The Eagles have one more point with a game in hand. Each round in the Hockey East Tournament is single-elimination, with the semifinals and final at TD Garden in Boston.

North Dakota is up three points on St. Cloud State in the NCHC. The high seed hosts a best-of-three quarterfinal before the winners descend on St. Paul for a single-elimination semifinal and final.

Bracketology

Unlike most NCAA Tournaments, the hockey committees merely seed the teams and fill the regionals without actually selecting the field, which is done by the PairWise rankings. The six conference champions are paired with the top 10 teams in the rankings that have not already qualified to fill out the field. This objective measure gives teams a sense of what they need to do at all times while also giving fans a sneak peek at what may be coming down the road.

The top four teams in the 16-team field earn a seed and are placed in one of four regions, which are filled out according to straight bracket integrity, though the committee does adjust first-round matchups within an individual seeding band to reduce travel while also avoiding intra-conference games. Additionally, teams hosting a regional must play within that regional. This year, Brown is hosting in Providence, Lindenwood is hosting in Maryland Heights, Nebraska- Omaha is hosting in Sioux Falls, and both AIC and UMass are hosting in Springfield.

The first six teams in the field are the conference leaders, which are listed below.

RIT and Quinnipiac have won their respective regular season titles, while Bemidji State and Michigan State can do so with a successful final regular season weekend.

The following 10 schools will fill out the bracket.

Wisconsin has taken over as the final No. 1 seed, but Boston College, Boston University and North Dakota remain in the same order. Toward the bottom of the bracket, Colorado College is out of the field after a one-point weekend at Omaha, while Cornell has fallen after a road split against Clarkson and St. Lawrence. UMass and Michigan are in their place. Hockey East has five bids, while Big Ten and NCHC each have four.

Nine schools have a 99 percent chance or greater to be in the field, according to the College Hockey News PairWise Probability Matrix. The cut line is going to be no higher than No. 14, as there are no Atlantic Hockey and CCHA schools that can finish in the top 16.

UMass is the final team in the field, which makes a mess for the committee, though with no third Hockey East 1-seed and Maine next in line at No. 9, it isn’t as bad as it could be since North Dakota can stay in Sioux Falls.

Elsewhere, Denver and St. Cloud State need a switch. The swap can’t come in Maryland Heights because of Western Michigan and it’s unlikely the committee would put the No. 6 seed in Boston College’s Region or pull Maine out, so Springfield it is, putting St. Cloud State in Providence’s spot.

With that switch, all that needs to be done is moving around Springfield and Maryland Heights so that UMass is at its host spot and not facing a league opponent. It doesn’t make sense to bring Michigan State to Springfield and Quinnipiac to Maryland Heights, so they’ll stay where they are and the 1-seeds and 4-seeds will rotate.

The bubble

The bubble is rapidly shrinking and will only get smaller as bid thieves either become more likely or occur. Only 20 schools, including Arizona State’s less than 0.1 percent chance, have an opportunity to earn an at-large bid, according to College Hockey News’ PairWise Probability Matrix. There are 14 spots for multi-bid league champions and at-larges, with Atlantic Hockey and CCHA tournament champions taking the final two spots, so at least six of those 20 will be left in the cold.

Of the teams outside the field, Colorado College, which is the first team out, has a greater than 50 percent chance to make the field, including 42 percent as an at-large. The Tigers host Minnesota Duluth this weekend and then have a home-and-home with Denver to close the regular season.

The percentages rapidly get smaller from there. Cornell, the second team out, has a 48 percent chance to make the tournament, but is almost twice as likely to get there via the ECAC autobid than earning an at-large spot. The Big Red finish their schedule with a home game each against Union and RPI.

New Hampshire is the only other team out of the field with a greater than 10 percent chance to earn an automatic bid, at 14 percent. The Wildcats have home-and-homes with Boston College and UMass Lowell left on the docket.

Omaha (6 percent), Northeastern (1.0 percent) and Arizona State (0.0 percent) are the only other programs within reach of an at-large bid.